A Preview of 2024 Elections Throughout Latin America

While anti-incumbent sentiments in the region have been the recent trend, establishment candidates stand to do well this year. Publication Type: Analysis and Commentary Anti-incumbent sentiment has gripped much of Latin America in recent years, swinging electoral results leftward in Mexico , Colombia , Honduras and Brazil , upending the corrupt coalitions that have long ruled Guatemala, and handing the presidency of Argentina to a self-proclaimed “ anarcho-capitalist .” But 2024 may prove to be a good year for establishment politicians. In the five countries with elections on the calendar — El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Uruguay and Mexico — insider candidates are polling ahead, at least so far. Voters cast their ballots at a polling place in central Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. July 1, 2018. (Victor J. Blue/The New York Times) Should these polls translate into electoral outcomes, it would be a sign that moderate candidates can still prevail over destabilizing populists, especially in strong democracies with competitive political parties, such as Panama, the Dominican Republic and Uruguay. But it could also consolidate authoritarianism in El Salvador and herald a new era of one-party rule in Mexico. The implications of instability in Latin America on the security of the United States are multifaceted and interconnected. Political and economic instability provide fertile ground for drug trafficking, organized crime and irregular migration, which have serious consequences for U.S. peace and security. Throughout Latin America, the United States relies on cooperation from capable, popular regional governments to check drug trafficking and migration across its southern border. Two countries without democratically elected governments may also go to the polls in 2024. Elections in Venezuela could provide an opening for democratic change, though the regime’s commitment to a competitive process remains unclear. And an electoral process could begin in Haiti, but with large parts […]

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By Donato