Estimating Market Implications From Corn and Soybean Yields Under Climate Change in the United States

The United States is one of the largest producers and exporters of corn and soybeans globally partly because of yields that are among the highest in the world. However, a changing climate could affect these yields, which could ultimately affect production and the availability of products for export. In this report, the authors estimate that U.S. corn yields could increase 3.1 percent and soybean yields could decrease 3.0 percent in 2036 relative to 2016, based on climate projections. These results are driven primarily by the increased frequency of periods of extreme heat and declines in precipitation in counties east […]

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