New York City, USA – June 25, 2016: The New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street. It is the largest … [+] The United States economy has rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 recession, aided by a heavy-handed and enduring government policy response . Since the pandemic hit, the U.S. economy has grown by 5.4%, while those of the remaining G7 have only increased by an average of 1.4%. However, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s latest figures , the U.S. economy grew only by 1.9% in 2022, below the G20 and OECD averages of 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively. In response to the ongoing inflationary pressures, the Federal Open Market Committee has continued tightening monetary policy, thereby impacting private consumption and investment. Russia’s war against Ukraine and international supply chain constraints have negatively impacted trade , with U.S. exports and imports projected to decline from 8.1% and 7.1% in 2022 to 4.1% and -0.2%, respectively, in 2023. As a result, U.S. economic growth is projected to be 2.4% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. These figures are below the G20 averages of 3.1% for 2023 and 2.8% for 2024, but above the OECD averages of 1.7% and 1.4% for the same years. Given the U.S. macroeconomic outlook , the Federal Reserve Bank of New York projects a 52% chance that the United States will fall into a recession over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury has highlighted that the American economy faces significant long-term fiscal challenges, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to exceed 200% by 2046 and reach 566% in 2097 due to an aging population and lower long-term real growth. The Treasury notes that preventing the debt-to-GDP ratio from rising over the next 75 years would require some combination of spending reductions and revenue […]
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